David Stone
Last year's first snow, November 15th, in the Senior Center garden.
Last year's first snow, November 15th, in the Senior Center garden.
© David Stone / Roosevelt Island Daily

Will Monday be Snow Day, the first for this winter? Every forecasting service says it will be, but none are certain about how much. Here's what we know: It's going to turn colder, powered by a north wind, and it will be white.

It's still mild enough -- 39 degrees in Midtown, 37 on Roosevelt Island, as of this writing -- that the return of yesterday's weather begins as rain, making for a gray and dreary commute after the long weekend. City schools reopen.

But then, a front passes, and winds make a turn to straight out of the chilly north. Temperatures begin falling around noon. Rain changes over to snow. After school programs requiring transportation have already been canceled.

The question of how much snow and how much sticks depends on when the changeover happens. Estimates are from 11:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m., and all of them could be wrong. Even with a chilling north wind, temperatures will not reach the freezing mark until early tomorrow morning, after the storm ends.

Freezing rain is out for Manhattan, but all other options are open. We could get all rain. Or six inches of wet snow.

Two things are sure. It will be a sloppy trip home, and mass transit -- subways, buses and ferries -- are by far your best option.

Work from home, if you can. Be safe, if you can't.